Prophet Modelling

AARC is uniquely placed in Prophet Modelling. Our team is vastly experienced in handling complex products in Unit Linked, Conventional and US Libraries.

We have expertise in Model Rationalization, Advance Prophet Modelling and ALS Modelling. We also provide customized Prophet Training & help our clients setup strong & fficient Prophet Modelling Framework and Teams.

Our Prophet Modelling Experts have worked in Indian, UK and US markets in areas of Solvency II, MCEV, Paid-up and CoG Modelling. We follow Modelling Best Practices which includes rigorous testing and detailed documentation for all our modelling work to help our clients use their Prophet Models with confidence.


Cost of Guarantee & Stochastic modelling

    • Stochastic modelling and projection of assets and liabilities – using ESG inputs
    • Cost of Guarantee modelling for regulatory purpose

Multiple decrement & Paid-up Modelling

    • Paid-up modelling and reserving for Par, Non-Par & UL products
    • Modelling of multiple transitions with H-S-D and Active-Disabled
      model for health products

Model Rationalization

    • Rationalization of existing prophet

Models post M&A activity or to increase efficiency

    • Integration of Valuation, Reporting, Planning models etc.
    • Implementation of modelling Best Practices.

  • Economic Capital & Solvency II

    • Risk Based Capital requirement modelling.
    • Sensitivity & Scenario Testing
    • Rebasing for SCR and Risk Margin Calculations


    Prophet Migration

    • Migration to Prophet models from existing models such as Excel, VBA, Moses, Axis, Algo etc.
    • Reconciliation of models based on monthly projections

  • Products Modelling

    • New and existing products modelling for Valuation and Business Planning
    • Complex Benefits Modelling such as Critical Illness, Waiver of Premium, Income protection, Extended Covers etc.

  • Business Planning & New Business Models

    • Business Plan modelling – Sales Projection, Capital Requirement, Profitability
    • New Business Modelling – NB Strain, PVIF, Initial Expenses etc.

  • US, UL, Conventional & Health Libraries

    • UL, Conventional & US Libraries – Unit Linked, Endowment Assurance, Term, With Profits, Critical Illness, etc.
    • Health Library – Income Protection Plan, Waiver of

    Premium, Claims in Payments, Rider Benefits, etc.

  • Asset Liability Management(ALM) – ALS Library

    • Asset Projection in the ALS library
    • Asset and Liability interactions using expected asset and liability cashflows
    • Dynamic buying and selling
    • Projection of assets based on liability projections

  • Reserving & Capital Modelling

    • Using Prophet for Reserving, Statutory Valuation and Solvency Purpose
    • Aggregation of Reserves and Solvency Margin by products category
    • Capital requirement and solvency projections

  • Prophet Training

    • Comprehensive Prophet Training of the Actuarial Team
    • Basic, Intermediate, Advance levels training
    • DCS and ALS trainings

  • Setting up Prophet Modelling Team

    • Comprehensive training and feedback to the modelling team
    • Assistance in Prophet team hiring
    • Setting up Prophet Modelling Framework in line with Best Practices

  • Prophet Modelling Framework Setup

    • Setting up of internal modelling standards, guidelines, efficient process.
    • Setting up modelling testing and documentation process

    Model Documentation & Testing

    • Setting up modelling testing and documentation standards
    • Prophet extraction and testing templates
    • Model documentation process and templates

  • Installation and Upgradation

    • Installation and Upgradation of Prophet on machines and server
    • UAT & documentation of Prophet upgrades.

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